51黑料

ST. LOUIS 鈥� Stringbean Coffee Co. owner Peter Cohen was worried. President Donald Trump had come into office touting sweeping tariffs 鈥� a move that could change where Cohen buys his beans and how much they cost.

The roaster typically sources from Peru, Brazil, Indonesia and Africa and coffee is, by necessity, an import. So in March, he secured more credit from his bank and bought months worth of beans.

Then, Trump announced more new tariffs on April 2. If the beans didn鈥檛 arrive in the U.S. before they went into effect, he鈥檇 have to pay the tax.

Cohen鈥檚 unroasted coffee beans made it through ports in time. But he鈥檚 worried about what his Brentwood-based business will do after this supply runs out in July.

Since Trump was inaugurated Jan. 20, he has announced rounds of tariffs against lists of countries, then paused some of those and announced others. China has remained a constant target, and that country has retaliated with tariffs of its own against the U.S.

Now, some 51黑料-area businesses are switching up their plans in response to the tight economy and looming trade wars. But, they say, the on-again, off-again tariffs have made deciding how to invest and plan for the future difficult. Plus, the U.S. companies importing the goods are the ones who shoulder the tariff costs, not the foreign producers.

Trump has argued that his tariffs will help restore U.S. manufacturing, forcing companies to buy domestically. But some items, like bananas, mangos and coffee, are impossible to grow in bulk in the U.S. and that puts some businesses in limbo.

鈥淐alifornia and Missouri and Illinois are not going to start growing coffee,鈥� Cohen said. 鈥淓ven if we could 鈥� which we can鈥檛 鈥� there鈥檚 a huge lead time.鈥�

Goshen Coffee Roasters鈥� chief coffee officer Tony Auger said he鈥檚 been on the phone nonstop with vendors, trying to figure out what will and won鈥檛 be affected. For Illinois-based Goshen, which buys its beans from Guatemala, Colombia, Brazil and Indonesia, buying is going to be a lot riskier, he said.

And Auger isn鈥檛 even sure if decisions he makes now will last. The roaster recently canceled a massive contract with small-scale farmers in Mexico because Goshen can鈥檛 afford to gamble with potential tariffs, Auger said.

鈥淚t鈥檚 terrible because all the work we did today could be thrown away tomorrow,鈥� he said.

He predicts many coffee roasters and cafes will close and that the price for a cup of Goshen coffee will rise, as their profit margins tighten.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no way around it,鈥� Auger said. 鈥淲hat people don鈥檛 realize is that it鈥檚 the packaging, it鈥檚 the boxes, it鈥檚 the parts on our roasting machine, it鈥檚 the tape that we use 鈥� it all has to come from somewhere.鈥�

Stringbean and Goshen aren鈥檛 alone in their uncertainty. Businesses say they鈥檒l shield their customers from cost increases for as long as possible, but experts warn that, in the end, consumers will see higher price tags.

The National Federation of Independent Business recently shared that its small-business index fell in March. The decline comes from surveyed businesses who reported having negative outlooks on business conditions, sale expectations, and plans to expand and hire.

An April by Endeavor Business Intelligence, the market research arm of Nashville-based Endeavor Business Media, found that about 27% of 400 businesses surveyed said they are facing significant financial strain as a result of the impending tariffs. As a result, over half of the respondents plan to raise prices significantly.

Tariffs as negotiating tactic?

On April 2, Trump announced a round of sweeping tariffs affecting about 90 countries, some climbing as high as 104%. Some of the United States鈥� major trade partners, including China, Vietnam and Taiwan, faced the brunt of these increased levies. Three days later, a 10% baseline tariff on all countries, which stacked on top of the ones Trump had already imposed, went into effect.

But on April 9, when the higher tariffs were slated to begin, Trump announced a 90-day pause on most countries. Still, many of the previously imposed levies, including in the 10% baseline, remain in place.

Glenn MacDonald, professor of economics and strategy at Washington University鈥檚 Olin Business School, said Trump could be using these tariffs as a negotiation tactic, hoping to eliminate some or all tariffs between the U.S. and other countries. And that isn鈥檛 a bad idea, he said.

鈥淭he ability to exchange between individuals, between individuals in different countries, between countries, that is just an enormous benefit for everybody,鈥� MacDonald said. 鈥淭ariffs, when you actually have them, interfere with activity and basically make us all worse off.鈥�

Even before Trump announced the 90-day pause, MacDonald said he wouldn鈥檛 be shocked if the levies were short-lived 鈥� but that it would depend on how stubborn foreign leaders were willing to be. No head of state wants to look like they鈥檙e being pushed around by Trump, but they also have to consider how much pain they are willing to inflict on their citizens to maintain that image, he said.

鈥淚 think you鈥檙e going to see a lot of countries kind of roll over pretty fast just because it鈥檚 in their self-interest,鈥� MacDonald said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the goal is to actually have these tariffs for any length of time. They鈥檙e much too destructive.鈥�

In his April 9 announcement, Trump said that more than 75 countries had reached out to the U.S. to negotiate a solution. Some, including the European Union, have put a halt on their own retaliatory taxes against the U.S. But China, in a tit-for-tat race with the U.S., upped its tax on U.S. imports to 125% Friday.

鈥淭he uncertainty is the worst part,鈥� said Derrick Langeneckert, managing member at 51黑料-based Alpha Brewing Co. 鈥淚t makes guys like me nervous.鈥�

Langeneckert said the brewery stopped producing experimental beers and hasn鈥檛 filled vacant positions.

鈥淎n employee asks for a raise 鈥� but I don鈥檛 even know what I鈥檓 doing next week,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e stuck in (between) a rock and a hard spot.鈥�

Langeneckert remembers Trump鈥檚 last term, when aluminum cans went from 14 cents to 18 cents each. That doesn鈥檛 sound like a lot, he said, but when you鈥檙e running about 700 cases a week, it adds up to thousands of dollars. Alpha Brewing Co. gets its cans from Metal Container Corporation in Arnold, which is a subsidy of Anheuser-Busch.

Anheuser-Busch said it would not comment on the tariffs.

Alpha Brewing Co. already sources its grain domestically, and unless the U.S. has a major mineral deposit of bauxite ore, the primary source of aluminum, they can鈥檛 get any more locally, Langeneckert said.

鈥淲e鈥檙e just trying to keep our cash close to our chest,鈥� he said. 鈥淭his could be the death knell for some breweries.鈥�

At Bluewood Brewing, located in the city鈥檚 Benton Park neighborhood, co-owner and head brewer Cameron Lund said potentially higher aluminum prices are prompting them to produce fewer cans this year and push draft beer in kegs, instead.

鈥淯nfortunately, American aluminum does not meet the needs of our industry, and the notion that these tariffs would produce instantaneous organic aluminum growth that would meet the needs of the brewing industry is pretty upsetting to us,鈥� Lund said.

North 51黑料 County-based distillery Switchgrass Spirits had plans to sell its whiskey in France and South Korea, said Nick Colombo, Switchgrass Spirits operations and finance manager. But Switchgrass Spirits pulled out of those talks after hearing whispers about potential export costs in February.

Instead, the distillery now plans to focus on expanding into neighboring states and developing lower-cost options, such as a $30-per-bottle sipping whiskey. The distillery produces bourbons ranging from $25 to $70 a bottle.

鈥淚f we go into a recession, people aren鈥檛 going to want to pay more,鈥� Colombo said. 鈥淲e鈥檝e seen people cutting back, buying the cheaper bottle, so we wanted to make a new product that is cheaper and smoother.鈥�

Switchgrass Spirits gets its grain in the U.S. but buys glass bottles from Italy. Colombo said he purchased a year鈥檚 worth of glass in February and those 26,0000 bottles made it into the country last week, before tariffs were set to take effect.

鈥淥ur suppliers are emailing us that they are going to try as hard as they can to keep prices low, but they鈥檒l need to raise prices or they will go out of business,鈥� Colombo said. 鈥淰olatility affects manufacturing so much. No one is investing. We鈥檙e not willing to invest in new equipment or labor.鈥�

Still, Colombo is optimistic that consumers will continue to buy alcohol no matter what, even if it is just to cope with economic uncertainty.

鈥淎lcohol is recession-proof,鈥� he said. 鈥淧eople tend to drink more when they鈥檙e stressed out.鈥�

Editor鈥檚 note: This story was updated Monday at 11 a.m. to correct the location of Switchgrass Spirits' headquarters.聽