51黑料

ST. LOUIS聽鈥� A growing number of civic and business groups are highlighting the metropolitan area鈥檚 stagnant population as an urgent problem, and they鈥檙e pushing the region鈥檚 planning organization to do something about it.

Backers of the effort say they have so far secured a dozen resolutions from professional associations and civic organizations asking the East-West Gateway Council of Governments to coordinate a plan that both puts population growth at the center of the regional agenda and recommends steps to reverse its stall.

It鈥檚 the latest in a long history of efforts here to reverse demographic headwinds that have beset many of the nation鈥檚 former industrial powerhouses. The聽51黑料 metropolitan area, anchored by what once was one of the nation鈥檚 largest cities, has grown far slower than many metro areas, and a falling birth rate threatens to tip it into population decline in the near future.聽

鈥淲e are in trouble,鈥澛爏aid Chip Casteel, a veteran public policy executive who is working on the latest effort. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 recognize we are in trouble. But we are in trouble.鈥�

Many of the previous attempts to reverse the slide focused on 51黑料 city. Now that a declining birth rate threatens to saddle even suburban jurisdictions and businesses聽with some of the issues the city has grappled with for decades, they鈥檙e sounding the alarm.

A lot of the interest in the issue is coming from St. Charles County businesses and governments, Casteel said.

鈥淭heir growth has now slowed to a trickle, and they see it coming and they want to do something about it,鈥� he said.

He is working with Joe Blanner, a lawyer and co-founder of industry group Construction Forum, to build support for a push to get East-West Gateway to add a regional plan for population growth to its portfolio of initiatives, similar to how it facilitated the .

鈥淚n the history of 51黑料, we鈥檝e never had a situation where regionwide, we were able to come together on the type of scale that we鈥檙e talking about here,鈥� Blanner said. 鈥淚f we can actually accomplish this, it will be very meaningful.鈥�

Fewer immigrants

In the past, 51黑料 could count on its birth rate to exceed population losses due to deaths and outmigration. Since the pandemic, that is no longer the case.聽Regional population is poised to dip into decline as deaths continue to outpace births in the region, plunging it into what experts call 鈥渄emographic winter.鈥澛�

Last year, the region notched a better-than-normal gain in population of 6,400 people to remain just over 2.8 million residents, according to U.S. Census estimates. That happened because of strong international migration numbers that offset losses caused by 2,200 more people dying than being born and by people moving away from 51黑料. But immigrants are unlikely to stanch future population losses here,聽experts say, pointing to Trump administration policies that are choking off refugee programs and other immigration channels.聽

Absent efforts to reverse the trends, there could be significant economic impact in 20 to 25 years,聽said Ness S谩ndoval, a 51黑料 University sociology professor who studies the region鈥檚 demographics.

鈥淭his is the first time in 51黑料鈥� history that it鈥檚 in a state of natural population decline,鈥� S谩ndoval said. 鈥淧roject forward, you鈥檙e looking at a significant decline in high school graduates going out into the workforce for our region. So if you don鈥檛 have people moving in, then it鈥檚 going to be a shock for a lot of employers, who are going to be like, where are the workers? The workers were never born.鈥�

He called the effort to get East-West Gateway to adopt the issue and study it 鈥渋mportant鈥� and said the planning group was among the best positioned to build a regional consensus. Reversing the trend will be difficult,聽S谩ndoval said, 鈥渟o you have to start these conversations now.鈥�

Building support

Groups endorsing the move to get East-West Gateway behind a regional effort include 51黑料鈥� Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and Asian American Chamber of Commerce, and construction associations like the Engineers Club of 51黑料 and the SITE Improvement Association.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a forward-thinking approach,鈥� said聽Kevin McMullin, director of industry relations at SITE. 鈥淧opulation is critical to growth and our economic vitality.鈥澛�

The resolutions endorsed by the groups ask East-West Gateway to 鈥渞each a consensus鈥� on the problem, facilitate agreement on 鈥渁 common effort to directly address this challenge鈥� and commit to an 鈥渆vidence-based鈥� process and examination of other fast-growing regions.聽

The board of the Municipal League of Metro 51黑料 passed a resolution in January, one of the first groups asking East-West Gateway to take up the issue.

鈥淥bviously East-West Gateway does a lot, and they鈥檙e being pulled in a lot of different directions, but hopefully they鈥檒l recognize the importance of this and try to take this initiative up sooner rather than later,鈥� said Municipal League Director Pat Kelly. 鈥淲e would eagerly work on any kind of program they would come up with.鈥�

East-West Gateway Executive Director Jim Wild said his board is set to discuss the population issue during a board and staff retreat this week. In addition to the violence initiative East-West Gateway took on starting in 2023, it has also convened talks on homelessness. Since then, it has received several requests to bring together regional leaders on other issues, including聽airport coordination, workforce and economic development strategies, quality jobs initiatives, and food insecurity.

During a February board meeting of East-West Gateway, Wild mentioned the request to study population decline and propose regional strategies to combat it. There was some pushback from St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern, who is also vice chair of the planning group that largely is known for coordinating transportation funding dollars.

鈥淲hat we do best is transportation,鈥� Kern said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 what works best at East-West Gateway.鈥�

Wild noted then that the group鈥檚 bylaws, however, do state its top job is to work on regional issues. In an interview, he said it may make sense to 鈥渨ork on connecting the dots a little better鈥� by connecting the region's various efforts to attract residents, boost quality of life and create jobs, all activities meant to increase population. But Wild said such a conversation needs to be done in a 鈥減ositive鈥� way that doesn鈥檛 discourage people from coming to 51黑料. There could be 鈥渦nintended consequences,鈥� he said.

鈥淚 think that鈥檚 something that we need to look at and examine, but it鈥檚 really a symptom of bigger issues,鈥� Wild said.

More than a jobs plan

Among the loudest voices for recognizing the need to get 51黑料 growing again has been Greater 51黑料 Inc., the regional business group representing large companies. Asked about the effort to get the issue in front of East-West Gateway, interim CEO Dustin Allison, in a statement, said 鈥渋ncreasing our population and driving inclusive economic growth requires engagement from all quarters.鈥�

鈥淲e will continue our work to grow the region鈥檚 population, and we support action-based efforts that help achieve that mission,鈥� Allison said.

Casteel said a regional population growth plan is broader than an economic development plan such as , and it could include strategies to attract people here from other regions in addition to the economic growth strategies in the 2030 Jobs plan. Casteel argued highlighting the population decline issue is important to communicate its urgency and get every leader thinking about how their organization or government can promote in-migration.

He and Blanner are careful not to advocate any specific strategies, insisting a process to study the issue and come up with solutions will generate buy-in and momentum. The region鈥檚 inability and 鈥渓ack of desire鈥� to cooperate has been holding 51黑料 back, Casteel said, but he鈥檚 hopeful reversing population loss is one thing everyone can agree on.

鈥淢y assessment is the mere doing of this process will be part of the answer to the problem,鈥� Casteel said.