51ºÚÁÏ

"There was finally a sense of calm," said Rebecca Shi, CEO of the American Business Immigration Coalition.

That respite didn't last long.

On Wednesday, Assistant Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Tricia McLaughlin declared, "There will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine (immigration enforcement) efforts. Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safeguard public safety, national security and economic stability."

The flipflop baffled businesses trying to figure out the government's actual policy, and Shi says now "there's fear and worry once more."

"That's not a way to run business when your employees are at this level of stress and trauma," she said.

Trump campaigned on a promise to deport millions of immigrants working in the United States illegally — an issue that has long fired up his GOP base. The crackdown intensified a few weeks ago when Stephen Miller, White House deputy chief of staff, gave the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement a quota of 3,000 arrests a day, up from 650 a day in the first five months of Trump's second term.

Suddenly, ICE seemed to be everywhere. "We saw ICE agents on farms, pointing assault rifles at cows, and removing half the workforce," said Shi, whose coalition represents 1,700 employers and supports increased legal immigration.

One ICE raid left a New Mexico dairy with just 20 workers, down from 55. "You can't turn off cows," said Beverly Idsinga, the executive director of the Dairy Producers of New Mexico. "They need to be milked twice a day, fed twice a day."

Claudio Gonzalez, a chef at Izakaya Gazen in Los Angeles' Little Tokyo district, said many of his Hispanic workers — whether they're in the country legally or not — have been calling out of work recently due to fears that they will be targeted by ICE. His restaurant is a few blocks away from a collection of federal buildings, including an ICE detention center.

"They sometimes are too scared to work their shift," Gonzalez said. "They kind of feel like it's based on skin color."

In some places, the problem isn't ICE but rumors of ICE.

Many foreign-born workers are staying away from Washington state cherry orchards at harvesting time after hearing reports of impending immigration raids. One operation that usually employs 150 pickers is down to 20. Never mind that there hasn't actually been any sign of ICE in the orchards.

"We've not heard of any real raids," said Jon Folden, orchard manager for the farm cooperative Blue Bird in Washington's Wenatchee River Valley. "We've heard a lot of rumors."

Jennie Murray, CEO of the advocacy group National Immigration Forum, said some immigrant parents worry that their workplaces will be raided while their kids are in school. They ask themselves, she said: "Do I show up and then my second-grader gets off the school bus and doesn't have a parent to raise them? Maybe I shouldn't show up for work."

The horror stories were conveyed to Trump, members of his administration and lawmakers in Congress by business advocacy and immigration reform groups like Shi's coalition. On June 12, the president posted on his Truth Social platform that "Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace."

It was another case of Trump's political agenda slamming smack into economic reality. With U.S. unemployment low at 4.2%, many businesses are desperate for workers, and immigration provides them.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, foreign-born workers made up less than 19% of employed workers in the United States in 2023. But they accounted for nearly 24% of jobs preparing and serving food and 38% of jobs in farming, fishing and forestry.

"It really is clear to me that the people pushing for these raids that target farms and feed yards and dairies have no idea how farms operate," Matt Teagarden, CEO of the Kansas Livestock Association, said Tuesday during a virtual press conference.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, estimated in January that undocumented workers account for 13% of U.S. farm jobs and 7% of jobs in hospitality businesses such as hotels, restaurants and bars.

The Pew Research Center found last year that 75% of U.S. registered voters — including 59% of Trump supporters — agreed that undocumented immigrants mostly fill jobs that American citizens don't want. And an influx of immigrants in 2022 and 2023 allowed the United States to overcome an outbreak of inflation without tipping into recession.

In the past, economists estimated that America's employers could add no more than 100,000 jobs a month without igniting inflation. But economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution calculated that because of the immigrant arrivals, monthly job growth could reach 160,000 to 200,000 without exerting upward pressure on prices.

Now Trump's deportation plans — and the uncertainty around them — are weighing on businesses and the economy.

"The reality is, a significant portion of our industry relies on immigrant labor — skilled, hardworking people who've been part of our workforce for years. When there are sudden crackdowns or raids, it slows timelines, drives up costs, and makes it harder to plan ahead," says Patrick Murphy, chief investment officer at the Florida building firm Coastal Construction and a former Democratic member of Congress. "We're not sure from one month to the next what the rules are going to be or how they'll be enforced. That uncertainty makes it really hard to operate a forward-looking business."

Adds Douglas Holtz Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office and now president of the conservative American Action Forum think tank: "ICE had detained people who are here lawfully and so now lawful immigrants are afraid to go to work ... All of this goes against other economic objectives the administration might have. The immigration policy and the economic policy are not lining up at all."