51黑料

COLUMBIA, Mo. 鈥� For one team, a chance to wind down nonconference play with a big-time win for the r茅sum茅. For the other, an opportunity to wipe out the taste of a bitter last-second defeat.

And for both, the chance to hold Braggin鈥� Rights over the other for a year.

Missouri and Illinois will face off in their annual rivalry game at noon Sunday in Enterprise Center and on ESPN, a nonconference matchup between area programs that each received votes in the most recent AP poll but did not move into the Top 25 rankings.

The Southeastern Conference鈥檚 Tigers (10-1) have put together an intriguing start to the season that included knocking off the top-ranked team during its last rivalry fixture. The Illini (7-3, 1-1 Big Ten) have some promising pieces but remain a work in progress when it comes to putting them together.

Illinois holds a 34-20 advantage in the series between the schools, but Mizzou has won three of the last five matchups in 51黑料. The Illini won 97-73 last year.

Here are three keys to this year鈥檚 Braggin鈥� Rights game:

How will Mizzou match up with Illinois鈥� size?

Missouri may very well go up against the best player it has seen yet this season 鈥� at least as far as NBA projections go, anyway 鈥� in Illinois point guard Kasparas Jakucionis.

Sure, Kansas鈥� Hunter Dickinson was a challenge. But Jakucionis is a different kind of test.

For one, he鈥檚 a 6-foot-6 point guard, which will present an interesting matchup question for the Tigers: Who will be his primary defender?

Tony Perkins, at 6-4, could draw that vital assignment. He has the frame to keep up with Jakucionis, which would involve fighting around screens, holding up downhill drives and being able to contest a steady diet of pull-up jumpers.

Jakucionis, a freshman from Lithuania, is averaging 16.1 points. 6.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game this season, very much doing a little bit of everything. He鈥檚 shooting 42% from 3-point range on a notable five attempts per game, plus coming away with a bit more than a steal per outing.

He鈥檚 not the only European whose size and skillset will challenge MU. Center Tomislav Ivisic, a 7-1 freshman from Croatia, is Illinois鈥� second-leading scorer with 14.1 points and 9.7 rebounds per game.

Mizzou has size that can match up with him. Center Josh Gray is a couple of inches shorter but strong enough to body Ivisic. Peyton Marshall, at 7 feet, 300 pounds, definitely could do that.

But the real challenge of guarding Ivisic is what he can do on the perimeter. He shoots 4.6 3s per game and is making them at a 34.8% clip. When Ivisic sets screens for Jakucionis, the centerl often will pop out instead of rolling and get a look from beyond the arc. That could strain the Tigers鈥� more traditional big men and draw them out from the paint, opening up that part of the floor.

Can Gray shut down a center whose game is very different from Dickinson? Or while the likes of Mark Mitchell and Aidan Shaw have to deal with Ivisic鈥檚 stretchy style of play?

Can Illinois knock down its 3s?

If the portfolio of those two players makes it sound as if the Illini are a 3-point happy team, it鈥檚 because they are. Illinois sits fourth in the nation with 32.7 3-point attempts per game.

Coach Brad Underwood has embraced shots from beyond the arc this season, but there鈥檚 a bit of math that has limited how lethal the 3-point barrage can be: While Illinois has the fourth-most attempts per game, it sits 244th in 3-point percentage, making only 32.4% of those shots.

There have been times where the approach works beautifully, such as when the Illini shot 48.4% from range to beat Arkansas 90-77. But in their three losses this season 鈥� to Alabama, Northwestern and Tennessee 鈥� they鈥檝e shot 33.3%, 26.5% and 17.4% from 3-point range, respectively.

Illinois has survived bad shooting in its 鈥渂uy鈥� games against lowly nonconference foes, but not so much against high-level competition. Barring a shift in game plan, Underwood鈥檚 team will take its share of 3-pointers. One of the keys to Sunday鈥檚 result will be how many go in.

Can MU鈥檚 steals and free throws cancel out other shortcomings?

For the Tigers, the stat to watch is turnovers.

Mizzou steals the ball from its opponents 10.5 times per game, which is tied for fifth in the country. Those plays are vital to coach Dennis Gates鈥� system, which favors transition opportunities and fast-paced offense.

The Tigers鈥� 22.4 points off turnovers per game is in the 99th percentile of all college basketball teams this season, per CBB Analytics.

Forcing turnovers 鈥� and avoid them on the offensive end, which also is an important part of Gates鈥� formula for success 鈥� can cover up MU鈥檚 shortcomings, too.

Missouri is, once again, not an elite rebounding team. Illinois is 28th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage while MU is 304th in what it gives up to opponents on the offensive glass. That suggests the Illini almost certainly will have an advantage and create extra scoring opportunities through rebounding.

Where Mizzou can make that up 鈥� and probably needs to, if it鈥檚 going to upset Illinois (the Illini were an early 2陆-point favorite) 鈥� is by getting enough extra opportunities at points through steals. The Illini have been above average at holding onto the ball.

The other part of the Tigers鈥� system to watch is free throw shooting. Point guard Anthony Robinson II has developed into one of the most versatile players in the country when it comes to playmaking on both ends of the floor. If he can keep up his pace of earning, on average, a free throw for every field goal attempt, that could compromise and frustrate the Illini defense.

Though Robinson is extremely efficient at getting to the line, it鈥檚 actually forward Mark Mitchell who leads Missouri in free throw attempts, with 6.3 per game. His shooting at the free throw line has declined, though, down from 76.3% during his freshman season at Duke to 62.3% last year with the Blue Devils and now 59.4% to start this campaign. A good day for him at getting to the line and capitalizing on those chances could balance out a rebounding deficit.