51黑料

COLUMBIA, Mo. 鈥� In college basketball, losses are like wine.

Don鈥檛 let the fact that you can鈥檛 spell wine without 鈥渨in鈥� get in the way of this simile. This is about aging.

Some losses age poorly, like a bottle of the fizzy watermelon-flavored stuff that costs less than a fast-food burger combo 鈥� falling at home to winless Jackson State fits the mold here. Others age quite nicely, generating an appreciation for the craft that goes into a bottled result 鈥� think of a rich, oaken Bordeaux.

In that vein, the weekend loss that Missouri men鈥檚 basketball suffered at the hands of No. 2 Kansas might be better thought of as a Bordeaux War for how the Tigers鈥� performance looks on paper.

Numbers and statistical models believe in moral victories, and a 73-64 loss that saw Mizzou lead for 14 first-half minutes contained enough to please the algorithms.

A week ago, the Tigers were 114th in the NCAA Evaluation Tool, or NET, rankings. Now they鈥檙e 90th, and all they鈥檝e done is lose to the Jayhawks.

The take into account 鈥済ame results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency and the quality of losses,鈥� per the NCAA鈥檚 explainer 鈥� all areas where Saturday鈥檚 defeat stacks up fairly well.

A road game against the No. 2 team in the country certainly strengthens a schedule 鈥� and whether the NET formula is conscious of how hostile the Allen Fieldhouse crowd is to anyone donning black and gold, the location of the game plays to Mizzou鈥檚 favor.

While different statistical and betting services varied on what exactly the Tigers鈥� margin of defeat should have been, trailing by nine defied expectations. And there were those 14 minutes in the lead, too.

鈥淚 want to see the next time a team leads in this arena for 14 minutes to start the game,鈥� MU coach Dennis Gates said after the defeat. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know when that will take place.鈥�

As far as efficiency goes, Missouri came away with 0.842 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports鈥� tracking, while Kansas managed 0.89 per trip down the floor. Pretty close.

Notably in Mizzou鈥檚 favor were the 16 turnovers they forced. Only scoring nine points off of them didn鈥檛 help with Saturday鈥檚 result, but the defensive performance was a clear win.

鈥�(One of the) things that stands out to me is this 鈥� and you have to understand the analytics of basketball 鈥� I don鈥檛 know a team that鈥檚 going to force Kansas into 16 turnovers in a game here, on their home court,鈥� Gates said.

No team has forced the Jayhawks to cough up the ball 16 times in a game at the Phog yet this season. Last year, West Virginia and Texas Christian University were the only teams to force 16 or more on KU鈥檚 floor. Only three opponents did so in the 2021-22 season 鈥� it just doesn鈥檛 happen often.

All of those factors 鈥� plus other programs鈥� varied results 鈥� contributed to MU鈥檚 rise in the NET rankings. That positioning will be key come March, when the Tigers will look to make it back to the NCAA Tournament in Gates鈥� second year at the helm 鈥� and when the NET rankings become a better indicator of team quality.

Four quadrants of game results, based on the NET rankings and game location, are often a basis for tournament selection decisions and resume construction.

Missouri currently has one prized Quadrant 1 win, its Nov. 28 road victory at Pittsburgh. The Kansas loss has the Tigers 1-1 in those Quad 1 games.

The Tigers are 1-1 in Quad 2 games, with a win at Minnesota and a home loss to Memphis.

Downing Wichita State at home counts as a Quad 3 win. The Tigers are 4-1 in Quad 4 games that need to be easy prey for a flawless resume 鈥� wins against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Southern Illinois-Edwardsville, South Carolina State and Loyola (Maryland), plus the Jackson State loss, all fall into this category.

That 7-3 start to the season doesn鈥檛 have Missouri in ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi鈥檚 latest NCAA Tournament bracket projections. He expects nine Southeastern Conference teams 鈥� Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi, Mississippi State and South Carolina 鈥� to crack the field.

Mizzou will play 13 games against those programs during the SEC portion of its schedule, leaving plenty of time for the Tigers to make up ground in a very direct fashion. The combination of nonconference buy games, neutral-site tournaments and other bits of early season strangeness also complicate metrics like the NET rankings, which could even out in MU鈥檚 favor down the stretch.

While SEC games ultimately will be a heavy determinant in whether Missouri has a chance to do some bracket-busting this year, there are two especially interesting nonconference matchups to go.

Seton Hall, which Mizzou plays Sunday in Kansas City, is 118th in the NET rankings, shaping up to be another Quad 3 result. No. 16 Illinois is 18th in NET, which would be a Quad 1 result for the Tigers.

Both of those games could be significant in three months鈥� time 鈥� especially because the aging of both wins and losses frequently comes down to losses.

Tigers land big in-state commitment

Missouri men鈥檚 basketball picked up its first commitment of the 2025 recruiting class through a top in-state player.

Aaron Rowe, a point guard who attends Father Tolton Regional Catholic High School in Columbia, verbally committed to Mizzou on Tuesday.

He’s considered a four-star recruit and ranked as the fourth-best point guard and No. 20 overall prospect nationally by and No. 25 nationally by .

Rowe played with 2024 Mizzou signee Antonio Barrett at the Elite Youth Basketball League鈥檚 Peach Jam tournament. Rowe previously played at Link Year Prep in Branson.

He鈥檚 the first commit in MU鈥檚 2025 class and won鈥檛 be able to officially sign with the program until roughly November 2024.