51黑料

COLUMBIA, Mo. 鈥� Seeding, seniors and getting stops. That鈥檚 what鈥檚 on the line for Missouri鈥檚 men鈥檚 basketball team in its regular season finale.

The No. 15 Tigers (21-9 overall, 10-7 Southeastern Conference) will play their final home game of the season, at 11 a.m. Saturday against No. 19 Kentucky (20-10, 9-8), honoring players out of eligibility afterward. Both teams are jockeying for seeding in the SEC and NCAA tournaments.

Seeding scenarios and tiebreakers will be complex, but with a win and a Texas A&M loss, Missouri would secure the No. 5 seed in the SEC tournament. An MU win and the Aggies beating Louisiana State probably would slot Mizzou in at No. 5. Kentucky, meanwhile, could finish as high as the No. 5 spot, too, with a win and the A&M-Louisiana State and Mississippi-Florida games going its way.

But there鈥檚 more to the matchup than just that for Missouri.

After displaying the nation鈥檚 best offense and worst defense simultaneously over the last five games 鈥� and that鈥檚 not an exaggeration, by per-possession efficiency metrics 鈥� MU could benefit from picking up another key league win that would show the Tigers are sorting themselves out ahead of the season鈥檚 highest-pressure games.

The Wildcats, in their first year under coach Mark Pope, are in many ways a similar team to Missouri. Both have big wins on the r茅sum茅 鈥� Duke, Gonzaga and Louisville for Kentucky; Florida, Alabama and then-No. 1 Kansas for Mizzou. As Missouri coach Dennis Gates pointed out Friday, both programs are battling for spots 5-8 in the SEC standings, though UK is on track to be a 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament while MU鈥檚 trajectory is pointed toward the No. 5 or 6 line.

And in terms of how Saturday鈥檚 game could play out: Both carry high-powered offenses and flawed defenses. Across all of SEC play, Kentucky has the fifth-best offense and fourth-worst defense in the conference, according to KenPom efficiency metrics. Mizzou has the third-best offense and ninth-best defense, though the latter has slipped significantly.

Don鈥檛 be surprised if both teams score north of 80 or even 90 points. Almost counterintuitively, that could make the contest come down to the defensive end.

鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a game where both teams will have to get stops in order to get the outcome that they want,鈥� Gates said.

Getting the stops needed to win has been Missouri鈥檚 exact problem of late, leading to road losses against Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma 鈥� three teams that the Tigers dispatched with no real issues at home, only to hand out paint points like party favors in those opponents鈥� arenas.

With postseason basketball looming on the other side of this weekend, it鈥檚 late in the year for any sort of defensive crisis. At its best, Mizzou鈥檚 defensive system can create havoc through turnovers and deflections that in turn feed its offense, and switching most ball screens throws some opposing teams for a loop.

But at its worst, foul trouble and sloppy rotations lead to easy buckets down low and plenty of free throws. Over its last five games, Missouri has given up the most paint points per game in the nation, the most points per possession in the final 10 seconds of the shot clock and been called for the third-most fouls.

So what does that bag of stats tell Gates?

鈥淪top fouling,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 give yourselves a chance to defend if you鈥檙e just allowing free throws, so we鈥檝e got to be able to not foul in certain situations, especially when it comes down to (a) high-percentage-shooting team. We just gave up too many 鈥� if you look at the common denominator 鈥� we gave up too many free throws, and that鈥檚 part of points in the paint, in my eyes.鈥�

It鈥檚 one thing to recognize that as the issue. Viewers of any recent Mizzou game can recognize the defense as a red flag. Battening down those hatches for tournament play is what becomes more important 鈥� and as a reflection on how the MU coaching staff approaches this time of year and whether the players can return to their previous level of defensive success.

Coaching a resumption of better defense comes through a few different angles, Gates said. First:

鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to adjust to the whistle this time of year. You still want guys to play hard, you still want them to play aggressive. You don鈥檛 want to change too much, but you can鈥檛 get caught with your hand in the cookie jar. You鈥檝e got to not reach in those last five to 10 seconds鈥� of the shot clock.

And:

鈥淲e鈥檝e got to be able to rotate early and not reach. Sometimes, the being out of position is the root cause of fouling because you鈥檙e trying to catch up, trying to hold, trying to do something else.鈥�

The first part comes down to on-ball defense. The second ropes in the four players who are guarding off-ball at any given moment.

Kentucky, which has six players (though not all healthy) averaging double digits, will test that. Gates coached against Pope when the former was in his final year at Cleveland State and the latter was at Brigham Young, so he鈥檚 familiar with the style the Wildcats will play.

鈥淲hat (Pope has) done now is nothing short of what I鈥檝e expected,鈥� Gates said.