51黑料

Nolan Arenado is still a Cardinal.

And he鈥檚 no longer Nolan Arenado.

And he鈥檚 owed $27 million next year (the Rockies will pick up $5 million of it). And $15 million in 2027.

The future Hall of Fame third baseman, who the Cards looked to move in the offseason as part of the club's 鈥渞eset,鈥� is now a below-league-average ballplayer.

Last year was a rough go of it, too聽鈥� Nolan finished with 16 home runs and a .719 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). Well, this year he has 10 homers and a .660 OPS, slightly higher than the OPS of No. 9 hitter Victor Scott II.

Players ultimately decline. But this one has been hard to watch. Because he still looks the same, right? That鈥檚 the guy, right there, who hit all those doubles and homers鈥� the slugger, the star. That's him, but it's not him.

I, for one, thought Arenado would bounce back this year. I wrote as such in the spring. And as this year began, his bat speed was clocked faster than recent seasons聽鈥� optimism in data form. But even with the faster swing, his swings aren鈥檛 producing. He hasn鈥檛 homered since June 21. And in the 24 games after that day, he is hitting .198 with a seemingly impossible .486 OPS.

鈥淗e's in and out of feeling good from a just swing standpoint, mechanic standpoint, timing standpoint,鈥� said Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol, 鈥渁nd it leads to some of the inconsistencies. But I've just seen it with him in the past聽鈥� it clicks and he can run hard for a long time and hold it for a long time. So he鈥檚 in a spot right now where there is a little bit of that, but I still am hopeful that he can flip this and get going.鈥�

But because of Arenado鈥檚 hefty salary, it would be hard for the Cards to trade him by Thursday without, one would surmise, adding a prospect to the deal. And the whole point is for the Cards to collect prospects, not give them away.

Attendance is down. TV money isn鈥檛 what it once was. The Cardinals, it appears, aren鈥檛 in a spot to take chances this winter with huge free agents. And even if they were, they are already allocating $62 million combined in 2026 to Arenado and Sonny Gray. So there just isn鈥檛 much money to play with, unless payroll surprisingly goes (way) up.聽

Of course, Chaim Bloom takes over as the baseball boss for John Mozeliak at season's end. Arenado will be Bloom鈥檚 issue to deal with, so we鈥檒l see if Bloom can work out a deal that Mozeliak couldn鈥檛.

But the reality is that the Cardinals could look similar next year, at least from an offensive standpoint, as they do this year, including the aging Arenado at third. The Cards are 55-55 and 5 1/2 game back of the final wild card spot.

Now, just like Arenado hopes to possibly become Arenado again, the Cardinals yearn to be the Cardinals again. And this sobering trade deadline聽鈥� and the Arenado situation聽鈥� is a reminder that it might take a while.

Marmol did a Tuesday radio interview on KMOX and shared an interesting sentiment. He doesn鈥檛 want the Cards to be a franchise that annually plays to just sneak into the postseason; he wants to dominate, like the days of 2011-15.

鈥淚n this seat, it's easy to just play for the now,鈥� Marmol said Wednesday to the media from his desk in the manager鈥檚 office. 鈥淎nd especially there are different things that would prompt you to want to play for the now. But I also have to take a step back and evaluate, like, what are we really trying to do here? And I want to make sure we're making decisions that also allow us to be really strong moving forward聽鈥� that's important to me.

"And I feel like we're building towards that, and I want to make sure that, like I said on (radio), I don't want to just sneak into the playoffs. I want to build and be a part of something that's building towards where you show up every day and you're expecting to win. You're expecting to win. And every now and then, somebody beats you, but you show up every day knowing you're going to win. And that's a different feeling. I want to get to that point. And if making tough decisions right now leads to that in the future, I think we'll all be pretty damn happy.鈥�

There are reasons for optimism from the offensive side of things. Young players Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson and even Nolan Gorman (in the weeks before his injury) are showing slug and swag. But alas, the pitching side provides pessimism. And there鈥檚 not much in the Cardinals鈥� system now, especially because of elbow injuries to key pitching prospects.聽聽

As for 2025, 鈥淚 think when you come into a season like that, where the goal is to just see what you've got,鈥� Burleson said, 鈥渨e're hovering around .500, and I don't think really anybody anticipated that. So we've kind of played a little bit better than people were expecting. But that's credit to guys who have taken advantage of their opportunities. Whether that鈥檚 recently or earlier in the year and we'll take the last two months to do that as well and just see what we've got going into 2026. ... It's been a it's been a different kind of year, but it's been a lot of fun.鈥�

It hasn鈥檛 been fun for Arenado, a fiery competitor who has accomplished so much in regular seasons past but very little in the postseasons. And he very well could be the third baseman on a 2026 Cardinals team that鈥檚 still not expecting to win like in the glory days.