
51黑料 Cardinal Nolan Arenado hits a ground-rule double off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jake Woodford in the fifth inning on Wednesday, Sept, 18, 2024, at Busch Stadium. Photo by Laurie Skrivan, lskrivan@post-dispatch.com
This time around baseball free agent marketplace heated up quickly, with slugger Juan Soto and pitcher Blake Snell meeting with the teams and pushing for a resolution sooner than later.
As that market moves, the trade market will follow. We鈥檝e seen a lot of minor deals as team set their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft.
The bigger swaps will come soon enough. The Cardinals are a team of interest, since lame duck president of baseball operations John Mozeliak will listen to offers for third baseman Nolan Arenado and Ryan Helsley.
The Cardinals have already made significant payroll cuts by turning pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn loose and by allowing Paul Goldschmidt to explore free agency.
With their local television scenario settled for 2025, Mozeliak apparently does not have to move Arenado鈥檚 contract or avoid arbitration with Helsley to meet a budget mandate.聽
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But if rival teams make compelling offers, the Cardinals could move Helsley and see if Arenado will waive his no-trade clause.
Tipsheet wonders if there is a big trade market for Helsley in current climate, given the fact fewer teams lean hard on one closer and more teams are assembling a fluid committee of high-leverage arms from year to year.
But one unnamed executive told this: “Helsley is the first name I thought of. Talk about an unneeded asset at his best? 51黑料 can really help themselves.”
And an executive had this to say to about Arenado: “I don't see how Arenado stays there, They'll work around his no-trade clause, and he'll end up in one of the bigger markets -- L.A., Philly or New York.”
That certainly sounds plausible. We assume interested parties will want to see where Alex Bregman lands as a free agent, then go from there. The Astros have made Bregman an offer after he hit the market, but agent Scott Boras is seeking gigantic money for him.
The Detroit Tigers are in the mix for Bregman and the Boston Red Sox could get into the bidding now that the franchise is committed to spending past the luxury tax level.聽
That could turn Arenado into a solid Plan B for teams that miss out on Bregman, especially if the Cardinals eat some of his contract. Stay tuned!聽
Here is what folks are writing about the marketplace:
Mark Feinsand, : “The Juan Soto sweepstakes are in full swing, and while no conclusion is expected before Thanksgiving, the feeling around the industry is that the slugger could make his decision prior to the Winter Meetings, which get underway on Dec. 9 in Dallas. Having already met with the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mets, Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, sat down with the Yankees on Monday at an undisclosed location near Boras’ offices in Newport Beach, Calif. According to sources, the Dodgers will be the next team to sit down with Soto, holding their meeting with him early this week . . . ‘We all know that Boras has a reputation for dragging free agency along at a snail’s pace,’ a National League executive said. ‘But when he has someone like Soto, that doesn’t usually happen. I’d be surprised if he hasn’t signed by the time we leave Dallas [when the meetings conclude on Dec. 12].’ Look no further than five years ago, when Boras represented Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon in the same offseason; all three players signed during the Winter Meetings that December, totaling $814 million in contracts.”
Dayn Perry, : “When committing to an organization for more than a decade, which is what Soto is going to do this offseason, familiarity is important. The Yankees offer that. The Yanks acquired Soto last December in a blockbuster seven-player swap with the Padres. That meant he spent his entire walk year with the Yankees, and what a walk year it was — a slash line of .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and more walks than strikeouts. In addition to enjoying one of his best seasons yet on the Yankees' watch, Soto got a first-hand and up-close glimpse of how the organization works at the highest level and also what it's like to bat in direct proximity to the likes of Aaron Judge. Although Soto famously has pole-to-pole power and can thump in any playing environment, as a lefty hitter he now knows what it's like to take aim at that short right-field porch in the Bronx. He knows what it's like to play under manager Aaron Boone, who’ll be back in 2025. Soto also knows what it's like to play in front of those typically intense and vocal Yankee Stadium crowds. From afar, all of those seem like positives, and that year of recruitment, whether passive or direct, seemingly puts the Yankees in an advantageous position.”
Jack Harris, Los Angeles Times: “There were two prevailing thoughts from some people around the Dodgers organization regarding Juan Soto’s free agency this winter. The team is probably unlikely to land the 26-year-old superstar, who is expected to command a contract upward of $700 million on a frenzied open market. But, the Dodgers might as well try nonetheless, since they possess the competitive track record and financial resources to be one of Soto’s few realistic landing spots this offseason. That pursuit is set to begin in earnest this week, according to a person with knowledge of the situation unauthorized to speak publicly, with Dodgers officials scheduled to meet with Soto and his agent Scott Boras on Tuesday, as first reported. That meeting will be the latest in a string of presentations from big-market clubs pursuing Soto in free agency. Already, the four-time All-Star and five-time Silver Slugger has reportedly met with the incumbent New York Yankees, deep-pocketed New York Mets and superstar-hungry Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. Despite helping the Yankees reach the World Series this year in a stellar first season in the Bronx, Soto has also said all teams will have an equal opportunity to sign him. Landing him, therefore, will likely require winning an unprecedented bidding war. To this point, the Dodgers — even in the wake of their billion-dollar-plus offseason last year — haven’t been scared away yet.”
Jesse Rogers, : “It seemed as if (Pete) Alonso was as good as gone a year ago at this time, said one executive who expects the first baseman to stay in Queens. But Alonso's attachment to the team and city only grew through the Mets' unexpected playoff run. New York knows about the downside of a potential long-term contract for an aging first baseman, but the Mets also know what Alonso means to a group that rode chemistry and a powerful lineup deep into October. ‘Their current payroll allotment for next year is way below where this year's was,’ one executive said. As another added, ‘I think the playoffs did the trick for him. I'm not sure he'll get a better deal than from the Mets.’”
Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic: 鈥淏lake Snell is not wasting any time. The free-agent left-hander recently met with the聽Boston Red Sox聽and聽Los Angeles Dodgers, according to sources with knowledge of the discussions. It is possible Snell also met, or will meet, with the聽Baltimore Orioles,聽Toronto Blue Jays聽and other clubs seeking a top-end starter. He surely wants an earlier resolution in free agency than he had last offseason, when he did not sign with the聽San Francisco Giants聽until March 19. Snell, who turns 32 on Dec. 4, is older than the other top two starters on the market, lefty Max Fried, who turns 31 on Jan. 18, and righty Corbin Burnes, 30. But he also holds an advantage in the market as the only one of the three who is not saddled with a qualifying offer. Thus, the team that signs him will avoid losing at least one draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money as well. The聽San Diego Padres聽hit Snell with a qualifying offer last offseason, making him ineligible to receive another. He ended up signing a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants, and after a second straight strong finish exercised his right to opt out after one year. Much of the talk with the Red Sox this offseason has revolved around their courtship of Juan Soto, but a top-of-the-rotation starter is their bigger need, and a left-hander would better fit their all-right-handed rotation. Snell pitched in the AL East with the聽Tampa Bay Rays聽from 2016 to 鈥20, and officials with two of his former clubs, granted anonymity for their candor, said he would not be reluctant to pitch in the pressure-packed Boston market. Like most free agents, Snell wants to play for a winner and wants to get paid.鈥
R.J. Anderson, : “The Rays added (Dylan) Carlson, a sensible buy-low candidate, in a minor deadline trade with the Cardinals. He started shockingly hot with Tampa Bay, posting an .836 OPS through his first 10 games that made it seem like his long-awaited breakout had arrived. He then cratered from there, hitting .212/.280/.259 in his subsequent 27 contests to round out the year. We could see this one going either way: even the Rays can afford a $2.7 million gamble, but it's hard for us to argue Carlson merits the investment given his big-league career to date.”
Michael Baumann, FanGraphs: 鈥淚n 2023, (Adolis) Garc铆a hit the absolute bejeezus out of the ball. When he made contact in 2024, he could still make good contact, but significantly more bejeezus remained within the ball. We don鈥檛 have swing speed data for 2023, so it鈥檚 tough to make a comparison with certainty, but it looks to me like he鈥檚 lost a tick. You wouldn鈥檛 think this just looking at him, but Garc铆a has never hit fastballs 鈥 particularly four-seamers 鈥 especially well. In 2023, he hit .197 against four-seamers, making it the only pitch he saw at least 100 of and ended up with a negative run value on. His whiff rate of 34.4% was higher than his whiff rate on curveballs, for instance, and within a point and a half of his highest whiff rate against any kind of pitch. Nevertheless, when he could get bat on ball he did damage, with a SLG of .490 and an xSLG of .482 against four-seam fastballs. This past year, the contact issues remained, but the power also evaporated: .310 SLG and .385 xSLG against four-seamers, leaving him 15 runs below average against the sport鈥檚 default pitch, according to Baseball Savant. That minus-15 is tied for the worst performance by any hitter against any particular pitch type in the majors in 2024, out of more than 3,500 hitter-pitch type combinations.鈥
Patrick Dubuque, Baseball Prospectus: 鈥淟ongtime third baseman and honorary Symbol of the Rebuild (Patrick) Wisdom got the boot from the (Cubs) roster . . . The all-or-nothing hitter technically maintained that dichotomy in 2024, posting a .222 isolated slugging, but his flyball tendencies grew Schimpfian (66%), and an attempt to focus on going the other way sapped the value of his power without providing any compensation to his average. One-dimensional sluggers: To thine own selves be true.鈥
MEGAPHONE
鈥淲e listen to our fans. Our fans really enjoyed having him in New York. He鈥檚 definitely a significant part of why we got to the World Series.聽I鈥檝e got ears. I know what鈥檚 expected of me. It鈥檚 been a priority 鈥 wouldn鈥檛 have gone out to the West Coast if it wasn鈥檛.鈥澛
New York Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner, on the courtship of Juan Soto.