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(A transcript of the chat will be provided below the text box. I’ll try to update that as often as I can.)

Ron: This will be an important series with cubs. Could help determine id cards are buyers or sellers

Guerrero: If we take a step back, I think looking at this next two-week stretch as a whole could help determine that. The Cardinals have seven games against the Cubs from today through July 6. The Cardinals began today 4.5 games back of the Cubs for the NL Central division lead and are 1.0 game back of an NL Wild Card spot. The next two weeks could be impactful.

Ken: Hi Daniel ! With an array of infielders can you see Saggese getting traded for pitching ? The Giants need a second baseman…

Guerrero: I just don’t see this being an option at the moment. The Cardinals like Thomas Saggese’s bat and his versatility on defense. And he’s just 23 years old. He’s shown some growth in controlling the strike zone in the sense that he’s been able to take more walks, even though his strikeout rate has stayed similar to last year. I don’t think he’d be dealt since he’s a young player who they’ve made sure gets playing time to continue developing. Also, assuming you are referencing starting pitching, the Giants traded away two starters (former Cardinal Jordan Hicks and lefty Kyle Harrison) in the Rafael Devers trade. I’m not sure they’d deal players from there since they’ve already pulled from that depth.

Tom: I have a strategy related question. It seems in recent years, when teams have had runners at 1st and 3rd and 2 outs, teams have been reluctant to throw down to 2nd to try and throw out the runner stealing second. I feel until recently, the strategy was to try and throw the runner out. Even doing so, it was till hard for teams to “steal home” and steal the run. I don’t know if this strategy changed with Yadier Molina no longer behind the dish or when the new rules were implemented. In extra innings on Saturday against the Reds, the Cards let them steal second without throwing down, which I was shocked with because that 2nd run in extra innings is huge. The Cards got out of it without allowing a run but thoughts on why this strategy has changed?

Guerrero: That really has been an interesting approach. Like you said, the second baserunner advancing into scoring position could be costly. A single more than likely scores them, and now you’re down two instead of one with a chance to stop the scoring there when you head to the bottom of the inning. I think the approach is sort of a two-parter. 1. You don’t allow the opposing team to try and steal a run at home. 2. You put the odds of stopping the runner on third base from scoring in the hands of the pitcher and the defense behind them. Like the example from Saturday that you mentioned, you have Phil Maton on the mound. Maton has a 35% whiff rate (top 5% in the majors) and a 32.5% strikeout rate (top 6% in the majors). If you ensure the go-ahead run doesn’t score on the steal attempt because of aggressive base running or an error, you give the swing-and-miss guy a chance to get swing-and-miss. In that scenario, it did work out.

DCG: Daniel: I don't get what this team is doing with Walker. Why isn't he playing every day? In a recent article, DGoold note that Burleson's ascendence comes at the cost of some ABs for Gorman and Walker. My question is why is Nootbaar immune from the "runway" calculus? It seems to me that at this point, we know what Noot is--an nice 4th outfielder. But despite all the metrics the FO can find, he's never going to be the player they envision, mostly because he's ever been that player at any stage of his professional career. It's year 5 for him, and he'll be 28 in-season. He's a streaky hitter who can look brilliant for stretches, but always find extended slumps, and thus he's only cracked .250 BA once. And so, it seems to me that with Scott's regular presence, any game that his Noot playing and Walker sitting is a mistake (save the occasion tough matchup against brutal RHPs). And with Gorman improving, I'd say the same for him. They're the future, not Noot.

Guerrero: I think what you mentioned about this being year five for Lars Nootbaar plays a part in wanting to see him every day to see what you have there. Like we’ve seen, Nootbaar has had some really strong stretches and has some of those advanced numbers that are positive signs he can be a really productive major-league player, but he’s been held back by injuries in each of the past two seasons. I think that’s part of wanting to see him every day if he is available. You get a full sense of what he can do when health holds up. With Walker, there is still a priority to get him playing time, even if it doesn’t appear that way right now. The season is long enough to get him the at-bats needed to continue growing in the majors and to see what he can be, too. 

South City Steve: I like Arenado but clearly he's in the way of this team figuring out which way to go and who they want to be in the future. Is there a way out with him, that is respectful but also allows both parties to move forward?

Guerrero: I think the simplest scenario would be if a trade comes to fruition. As we all know, that depends on the Cardinals finding a deal they feel is right and one that Arenado would waive his no-trade clause for. 

South City Steve: Here's my concern (less so now that Chaim will be in charge), the Cardinals have a rich history of finding reasons to never give up on a young player. And I think to this point in the season most of the "runway posse" has shown reasons to believe in a portion of their individual skillsets. But to take the next step forward this roster needs more wire-to-wire talent, not just guys who can put together a good March/April and then turn into a pumpkin for 6 weeks before have two good series and leveling out again. So, can they properly evaluate these players and pick the ones worthy of a longer investment?

Guerrero: But I think that’s what the rest of the season offers: a chance to see if the “runway posse” you mentioned are guys who can go wire-to-wire throughout a season. Yes, we have a larger sample size for some players as we near July, but we still have July, August, and September to see what they do over a full season. 

JW Help: Did the Cards rush Walker back from the IL

Guerrero: No, they didn’t. If your question on this arises from him not being in lineups as often, Walker’s limited playing time since coming back from the IL is because of the runway guys like Alec Burleson have received over the past few weeks.

David J: Daniel: In looking to the future, the Cardinals' system seems to be pretty stocked with talented prospects in the middle infield (Winn, Donovan, Weatherholt, Sagesse, Prieto, Padilla - not so much Gorman and Barrero). They also have lots of promising catchers (Pages, Herrera, Crooks, Bernal, Rodriguez, Campos). The talent in the outfield is thin. Walker has improved defensively, but continues to struggle offensively. Nootbar has been better, but is slumping now. Scott flashed early this year, but has since reverted to form. Burleson is crushing it lately and we can probably count on him as a cornerstone going forward, but that is about it. The minor league outfield talent is very thin: Davis and Koperniak have OPS's under .700. Baez is finally getting better, but his forecast is still questionable at best. The system has few true power hitters - and none of them are outfielders. Do the Cards have a plan to fix this? What do you think they can/should do to better balance the talent in the system among position players?

Guerrero: We’ve seen how the Cardinals are addressing player development, not just specific to the outfield, with the added staff and overall investments they’ve made with the farm overhaul. That, in the bigger picture, is a way they’ve tried to lift the farm system. What you mentioned with Joshua Baez is an example of that. A struggling prospect is having a breakout year and showcasing the tools we’ve heard about but just haven't seen over a stretch as long as this one. (I think we can also include Nathan Church’s breakout year as a spotlight within the outfield mix, too.) Considering where we are in the calendar and where the Cardinals are drafting, that balance could look different in a few weeks following the MLB Draft. The Cardinals hold the No. 5 overall pick, and there will be options to add an impact player at any position. I’m not sure what direction they will go, but how the farm system looks could change depending on how the draft unfolds.

Amir: Any idea what exactly Joshua Baez has changed about his game that has really turned around his minor league career? His A+ level play was impressive, but it's even better to see him tap into his power at AA. His play couldn't come at a better time given that the right-handed hitting OF depth in the minors is thin

Guerrero: One of the things that you can see with Baez is being a little taller in his stance, more open with it, and using a more pronounced leg kick. He’s cut down on strikeouts while tapping into his power potential. When I had a chance to talk to him this past spring, Baez alluded to some mechanical changes last summer when he was sent down the system from High-A to Low-A.

DCG: I appreciate your measured response, which is free of the frustration that I feel as a fan. And I understand that you're giving the Cardinals' perspective, not your own. But isn't the injury thing just an excuse regarding Noot? His prolonged slumps haven't been injury related. It's like with Tyler O'Neill--yeah, he was hurt a lot, but that's not what made him consistently chase breaking balls away out of the zone. I just think you look at Noot's minor league career--.730 OPS--and his major league career--.760 OPS. That's who he is, and I think the FO has fallen in love with him the way all teams do with certain players despite actual production. To me, it's time to move on and prioritize Gorman and Walker. I don't think it's even a close call. Each of them has managed to show at some point or multiple points in their pro careers full seasons of .900 OPS. Noot's not come close to that in any pro season of 300 ABs or more.

Guerrero: I feel like the injuries with Nootbaar were always like a “what if?” I think that is the case when paired with the other metrics like his batted ball data and plate discipline that gives the notion he can push that career OPS up. I don’t want to say it was an excuse, per se, but it did spark an urge to see what this looks like over a whole season. The data shows that there is a foundation for him to break through but you want to see if that production carries over 162 if he is healthy, and where we’re at is part of the process. Prolonged slumps are going to happen to any player, and this is Nootbaar’s chance to show his production can break through when his health holds up. 

DCG: I was just going to ask about Baez. He is yet another example of my idiot fandom thinking a teenager struggling in A-ball is a bust. When will I learn. He has really come on since the second half of last year. What do the Cardinals have in this guy? Only 21 and putting up .950 OPS A/AA this year. What might his timeline project to?

Guerrero: Mentioning his age is important. He was a teenager when he was introduced to professional baseball and had his first full season limited to 32 games because of a hamate bone injury. Age and reps play a huge role in development in terms of physical and mental development. I think we’ve also seen the latter with Baez as he’s gotten playing time in the minors. What we’ve seen this year shows the Cardinals have right-handed hitting outfielder with power, speed (26 stolen bases on 30 attempts), and a strong throwing arm from right field. Those are some of the tools Baez possessed but hadn’t turned into production over a prolonged stretch. I’m not sure if the Cardinals would rush his timeline, but that could depend on how Baez continues to perform with his opportunities.

Spork: The Cardinals seem to have a lot of catching depth in the minors. Any chance they make a prospect swap for pitching prospect(s), to help where the pipeline has dried up? Also, what position holds more trade value, catchers or pitchers? Is a AA 50 FV catcher worth more or less to teams than a AA 50 FV starting pitcher?

Guerrero: Although the Cardinals' catching pipeline has depth, I don’t think the organization would pull from that area to acquire a prospect at another spot. If the Cardinals make moves to deepen their farm system, I expect those moves to involve big-leaguers on expiring contracts that the Cardinals are looking to get a return on if they don’t plan to pursue them in free agency.

Jock Ewing: Daniel - I'm old enough to remember when SP Todd Worrell would wear down after 4 or so innings in the minors and became a closer. It worked out fairly well for all concerned. At what point does Tink Hence make the move to the pen?

Guerrero: If a change in roles is coming for Hence, I wouldn’t expect that to be any time soon. He is still a starter and will be given that chance to start. Yes, the health concerns have been apparent, and his innings have been limited because of them. But it appears Hence will remain on that track.

MS Bird Brain: I see in other outlets that some teams are looking for first base help. Do you think Baker would be a minor factor at the deadline? He is heavily blocked in 51����.

Guerrero: If the Cardinals are open to moving Luken Baker, I think he would be a factor as a low-cost, low-risk move if other teams are looking to add a first baseman/right-handed bat. That move could also allow Baker to get an opportunity elsewhere and could get the Cardinals some return for a player who, as you mentioned, has had some blocks in his path.

Timbo02: This is completely off any important topic as to the Cards, but am I the only one who is sick of this new trend to have baseball pants WAY above the knees ?...I'm talking shorts here....I know it comes from the same look, in collage football, which is just as horrible....but to bring this to baseball?.. First we had to accept the "pajama pants"...now ..well ..if you look at those old pictures of the White Sox shorts uni's?.....some of these players pants are even SHORTER than those!! Is there really no rules in place that determine what a "uniform" is supposed to be like in MLB?.

Guerrero: I know there are rules/policies for uniforms across MLB and certain rules within some teams, but I’m not sure what specifically is set for how high socks/pants can go. I have always been a huge fan of high socks and am sometimes disappointed when a player who wears high socks ends up putting them down. But yeah, the baseball shorts trend is a different look, that’s for sure.

Red: Given his injuries, and other C depth, might STL move Herrera permanently off C to help minimize body stress and help ensure the bat stays in the lineup? Guys that regularly DH hit better also

Guerrero: A positional switch isn’t out of the realm of possibilities for Ivan Herrera. Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol was asked about Herrera possibly using the offseason to get work in the outfield. He said the idea has been “toyed with,” but involves a “bigger discussion” to find out what makes sense in the “big picture.” The Cardinals want to exhaust all of their options, including giving Herrera more time behind the plate, before there is a conversation on a possible move. Marmol did note that the Cardinals are not at that point yet. 

Red: Pardon if asked, but the SPs beyond today are TBD. Is there a possible injury or something holding them back from announcing?

Guerrero: That is correct that the SPs beyond Matthew Liberatore today are TBD. Though that does not have anything to do with potential injuries. The Cardinals could insert Michael McGreevy as a spot starter this week. That could be as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. He is eligible to get recalled to the majors as early as Tuesday. We were expected to get pitching plans postgame, but were told the Cardinals were holding off on that as they go over how the plans could lineup beyond Tuesday-Wednesday.

South City Steve: If Bob Nightengale’s report from yesterday is true about Mikolas being unwilling to waive his NTC, that’s beyond frustrating. This puts the organization in a box and guarantees they get nothing in return for him, not even a comp pick. You can’t make him a QO in October because he will undoubtedly take it. The ROI on the 2nd half of Mikolas’ Cardinal career has been garbage, he turns 37 in August, and he has no future with this club. So why not do right by the organization that has paid you $55+ million for a 5.00 ERA the past 3 seasons, and let them get some prospects? So ready for this clown show to end in October.

Guerrero: Even going back to January, Mikolas has expressed his intent to remain a Cardinal. The scenario you described would leave the Cardinals in a box if they looked at getting some sort of return in a Mikolas deal if that were prospects or salary relief. When he spoke with my P-D teammate (and friend) Derrick Goold back in January, Mikolas expressed a desire to stay in 51���� in hopes of having a bounceback year. The reality is that at the end of the day, Mikolas has the say in all of this, and if he remains committed to the Cardinals, he doesn’t have to approve any deal if another team approaches the Cardinals with one. 

Red: I keep hearing speculation about Arenando trades. Despite your well deserved metaphorical promotion to the show, you should still be a good source on the future of the Cards. Arenado has two years left on his deal right?. If your objective was to play in the World Series before you retire, would you accept a trade from the Lou? If yes, to whom? My point is that the chances are very good that Nolan ain't going anywhere.

Guerrero: Yes, Arenado’s current contract expires at the end of the 2027 season. What you described with the objective seems to make a deal more tricky because a World Series contender that Arenado would want to join has to come knocking on the Cardinals’ door. 

DCG: The thing about moving him from C is that his value is astronomical if he's behind the plate because there are so few catchers that can hit the way he can. I certainly see the argument if injuries continue to be a thing, but for now, I wish they'd commit to him at catcher for while and see if he can improve behind the plate.

Guerrero: That’s a good point. Perhaps that’s another part of the discussion. How do you weigh the tradeoffs (his defense in a new spot, what his offense brings to a new spot, and how that compares to who else plays those two positions) if he moved to the outfield vs. staying behind the plate? 

MS Bird Brain: Daniel two under the radar pitchers could matter later this season, especially after the current unknowns at the trade deadline. Zack Thompson and Ryan Fernandez. Do you have any scoop on them? Fernandez' stats are decent lately, but Thompson's status keeps showing "updated", with no real updates. Could either of these players help the Cards yet this season?

Guerrero: The last we heard on Thompson was that he recently began a throwing program to strengthen his arm. He responded well to that after his recovery stalled in May. There isn’t a timetable for him to return to the mound yet. As for Fernandez, we haven’t heard much about his progress recently. As you said, the stats look decent of late. His strikeout rate in May (21 in 12 1/3 innings) showed some signs that he is progressing, even if the ERA (5.11) didn’t look great. He’s maintained an improved ERA in June (3.72 in 9 2/3 innings with eight strikeouts), but is still getting work in Memphis. The fact the Cardinals have called upon other right-handed arms before returning Fernandez is a sign they want to give Fernandez more time to work on his changes.

MS Bird Brain: The Cards gotta be excited at the Springfield Club right? One guy that you don't hear a lot about is Ixan Henderson. Does he see AAA soon? To me his stats are not that much different than Mathews and he is more than a year younger.

Guerrero: Henderson is an interesting name to highlight as he’s kind of flown under the radar but steadily improved since joining the Cardinals’ system as an eighth round pick in 2023. Henderson, 23, was an Arizona Fall League invitee last year and made a strong enough impression in spring training to earn him a promotion to Class AA Springfield to begin the year. He’s struck out 77 batters and sported a 2.07 ERA in 65 1/3 innings over 12 starts. His increased velocity has helped him, as has his sweeping slider and a cutter. It seems like there could be room for Henderson to join the Class AAA rotation in Memphis, but I don’t know how soon that could be. The Cardinals like to move their prospects up at the end/start of a month.

ICCFIM: The Cardinals have 12 games in July against the NL bottom feeders. What should the Cards be looking to add to make a playoff run assuming they can stay afloat the next two weeks and make a run in July? When Herrera comes back will they let Barrero go? If they are willing to platoon Noot, Walker, Saggese and Gorman, they can get each of those guys in 3 of 4 games if they give another regular starter a rest once a week.

Guerrero: The “if” in your questions carries some weight, I’d say. How the Cardinals play over this stretch could be pivotal for how they approach the trade deadline at the end of July. As was mentioned earlier in the chat, the Cardinals have seven games vs. the Cubs in the next two weeks. That could change the outlook of this Cardinals club coming out of the 4th of July weekend. 

Guerrero: Ok, I think that’s a good spot the end the chat. Thanks to everyone for participating. Apologies if I could not get to your questions/comments. Thanks for continuing to subscribe to STL Today and/or the Post-Dispatch. Keep an eye out for ample Cardinals-Cubs coverage in the coming days as one of baseball’s oldest rivalries is reignited just as the 51���� summer heats up. Again, please stay safe and hydrated out there! Talk to ya later. – Daniel Guerrero

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