As he prepares for his fourth start of the season after a bit of an uneven beginning, Sonny Gray will need to continue to improve in one statistical area.
The right-hander Gray (2-0, 4.50) starts Monday as the Cardinals open a three-game home series against the Astros at 6:45 p.m. 51ºÚÁÏ took two of three vs. the Phillies over the weekend.
Gray has gone five innings and allowed two or fewer earned runs in two of his starts, but between those he struggled in permitting five runs to the Angels.
Gray has so far allowed much more hard contact than his career averages would suggest. His hard-hit rate (48.7%) ranks near the bottom of qualified starters this season and about 9 percentage points worse than last season.
People are also reading…
But despite the up-and-down results, Gray's hard-hit rate has been steadily trending back toward his historical averages.
That trend line will have to continue if the Cardinals are to defeat the Astros, who rank in the top third in baseball in hard-hit rate (42%).
Among Astros regulars, Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez all are among the better players in baseball in hard-hit rate.
Both Pena (57.5%) and Walker (52.9%) hit the ball hard more than half the time.
Houston will send out left-hander Framber Valdez (1-1, 2.50), who since the start of 2022 has been the American League's second-best starting pitcher by Fangraphs wins above replacement value.
With a .787 on-base plus slugging percentage vs. left-handers this season, 51ºÚÁÏ is fifth-best in baseball, a massive improvement a season after ranking in the bottom third in baseball in OPS vs. lefties.
Lineups
CARDINALS
1. Lars Nootbaar, LF
2. Luken Baker, DH
3. Willson Contreras, 1B
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B
5. Brendan Donovan, SS
6. Jordan Walker, RF
7. Nolan Gorman, 2B
8. Pedro Pagés, C
9. Victor Scott II, CF
P: Sonny Gray, RHP
ASTROS
1. Jose Altuve, DH
2. Isaac Paredes, 3B
3. Yordan Alvarez, LF
4. Christian Walker, 1B
5. Yainer Diaz, C
6. Jeremy Peña, SS
7. Cam Smith, RF
8. Mauricio Dubón, 2B
9. Chas McCormick, CF
P: Framber Valdez, LHP
Injury report
Masyn Winn, SS (back spasms): Placed on the 10-day injured list due to lower back spasms experienced April 11. Winn was going to be unavailable for between four to six days, and the Cardinals opted for a more conservative approach with their young shortstop due to cold weather and his past experience with back spasms. Updated April 12
Ivan Herrera, C (knee inflammation): Herrera sustained a bone bruise to his left knee, and that will require at least four weeks to heal. He is walking around without pain and starting to move more comfortable in workouts, but he has not yet been cleared for baseball activities. Updated April 12
Zack Thompson, LHP (lat strain): Remained in Jupiter, Florida, to begin a throwing program after a month of limited activity and no throwing. Thompson went through multiple checkups and scans to monitor the healing of a tear in his lat on the left side, and they did not show any setback to delayed Thompson's scheduled move to the injured list. On April 7, Thompson was transferred to the 60-day IL. Updated April 7
