Hi everyone, happy Monday and happy Cardinals chat day here at STL Today dot com. P-D baseball writer Daniel Guerrero. I'll be on the chat to field your questions and comments. Lots to talk about after the first series following the trade deadline and before a three-game set at Dodger Stadium against the reigning World Series champs. Let's get to it.
(I'll have a transcript of the chat below the text box as this chat goes on. I'll try to update it as often as I can.)
ud: I'm curious about Cesar Prieto. He came to us in 2023 in the Flaherty trade and has been a fairly consistent hitter who can play three infield positions. I get that we have a glut of infielders in the majors and minors including two guys pretty much like him in Saggesse and Fermin. Is he destined to become a minor league free agent? Seems like there would be teams that would have given him his cup of coffee by now, will he not get one here? If so is it just the glut of similar players in front of him or is there something else about him that's keeping him from getting that chance?
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Guerrero: You’re right that Prieto has been fairly consistent since he was acquired by the Cardinals in 2023. Since Prieto entered the Cardinals system, he has batted .282 in over 1,000 at-bats and shown some increased slugging, as last year he connected on a career-high 35 doubles and 14 homers. Slugging percentage this year (.450) is up from last year (.445), as is on-base percentage (.349 in 2025 to .318 in 2024), thanks to an increased walk rate. Like you said, he plays different infield positions in a pretty crowded mix. The Cardinals have given him looks in big-league spring training, and he’s performed well. I remember one game this past spring where Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol highlighted Prieto’s hustle as something that sticks out to you. With all that being said, it does feel like he could benefit from a change of scene, considering he’s played well in two seasons but has yet to get a call-up to the majors. I feel like that infield group has been too crowded. With Masyn Winn holding down shortstop and Nolan Arenado at third base and Brendan Donovan manning second base the past two seasons, we’ve seen how that has made opportunities in the majors limited for infielders like Thomas Saggese and forced some lineup maneuvering to get Nolan Gorman in the lineup at second base. Prieto, 26, is Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, so he would need to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected if the Cardinals want to keep him from being available to other teams.
Tackleberry: Do you see a scenario where Arenado gets DFA’d this winter?
Guerrero: No, I don't see that happening.
MO sports fan: Is JJ on the 40 man roster? If not, I don't expect to see him this year. It would complicate the roster for the off season.
Guerrero: No, JJ Wetherholt is not on the 40-man roster.
Nick: Is there a change in perspective about that game calling/game plan of Pages? Seems lately that Pozo is getting more of the "runway," and pitchers are having better results.
Guerrero: I don't see that being the case for Pages. The Cardinals and pitchers have still like Pages' game planning and calling behind the plate. I think getting Pozo in there works for two reasons. 1. You get his bat in there and 2. You get Pages some breathers as he's handled the majority of the catching duties this year. He's caught 81 games and started in 73 games. His 73 games is 12th in the majors and so is his innings in total (645.2) behind the plate. Like you said, Pozo has gotten some added playing time and shown well with his batterymates, but I wouldn't take that as Pages is being looked at differently.
Evil Calvin: So, Arenado was put on IL the day after the trade deadline ended. So, were the Cards knowingly going to trade damaged goods? Keeping it quiet? Or did Arenado keep it quiet so he could potentially be traded? Either way, it's a bit shady....especially with the IL stint the next day.
Guerrero: I don't think there was anything "shady" going on by anyone with Arenado going on the IL the day after the deadline. There are always medicals be reviewed when acquisitions (trade and free agent) go down so teams aren't surprised about anything. He had been playing through discomfort and that had been written about here on STL Today/Post-Dispatch and by other outlets but it got to a point to where an IL stint was needed for him to get healthy.
Aaron Knopf: Hi Daniel, thanks for chatting with us. I am wondering about the futures of Church, Koperniak, and Torres. Church is having a breakthrough year, but how does the organization view him? Koperniak has been hitting better lately, but it’s hard to see him getting an opportunity after such a regression this season, and I remember you saying last year that his heavy ground-ball rate likely would hamper him in the big leagures. Torres has had two strong years, last year in Springfield and this year in Memphis, but he isn’t young. Is he nothing more than a solid minor leaguer? Thanks!
Guerrero: Of the three, it feels like Nathan Church has the least cloudy outlook moving forward especially considering opportunities within the organization. The Cardinals sent him to the Arizona Fall League last year and have given him a decent amount of playing time in center field while in Class AAA this year. He's 25 and, like you said, amid a breakout year. His speed and defense give him some intriguing tools. I think Koperniak being a left-handed hitter in an outfield mix with a good amount of lefties has made getting that call up tricky even with his 40-man status. And for Torres, who isn't on the 40-man, he's played well and moved up the system since signing with the Cardinals last year, but he seems lower in the organizational depth chart.
MO sports fan: I was happy to see Arenado get some time off. Now I want to know what may be the best course for the Cards. 1) Let him rest and get rid of the small pains, then return and show other teams what he can still do. or 2) Let him rest the rest of the year so he may be more open to a trade. What do you think?
Guerrero: As of Friday, there was no timeline for when Arenado could return from the IL. I'm not sure what is exactly best, but I think in a general sense, you always want to see a player come back from injury and be his best version. I'm not sure how that could factor into any decisions this offseason if Arenado is open to being traded and the Cardinals look to find a deal.
Tbird728: Doesn't J.J. Wetherholt need to be added to the 40-man roster first before he can be called up in September? I don't see the Cardinals doing this as they have other needs first for the 40-man roster to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. A lot of fans are thinking he will be called up, but they will be disappointed.
Guerrero: Yes, he would need to be added to the 40-man roster.
JG: Who are the players the Cards must protect in this year's Rule 5 draft?
Guerrero: The group of players who become Rule 5 Draft eligible includes a handful of prospects who have reached the upper minors. Some of the names on that list: Jimmy Crooks, Leonardo Bernal, Cooper Hjerpe, Joshua Baez, Nathan Church, Cesar Prieto, and Max Rajcic. It's still too early to tell how the Cardinals will navigate it, but that mix includes some noteworthy prospects.
Alan: I know one shouldn't read the statline when ranking prospects, but Blaze Jordan's looks awfully good, and potentially with more power to come. What's keeping him from being a more highly regarded prospect?
Guerrero: It seems like coming into this year, a couple of the traits that have shaped the perception of Jordan are the batted ball frequencies and his defensive profile. He had a 57% groundball rate last year, but he's cut that to 50% this year while producing more line drives and fly balls, which has come as he's improved his ability to slug. He's also seen as more of a first baseman than a third baseman because of his range, so I think that plays a role in how he's viewed.
Milo Miller: Daniel, greetings this Monday. With the looming labor mess coming in 2027 with a new CBA to be negotiated, isn't 2026 looking like another year with runway for the players? I do not see this ownership investing in this roster until a new CBA is in place. I'm sure they will want to know the financial landscape of the MLB before making a commitment. Your thoughts? Thank you.
Guerrero: I feel like even without the looming labor mess in 2027 because of the expiring CBA, the Cardinals' timing of their reset/transition just happened to coincide with the uncertainty of what MLB will look like in 2027 and beyond. With that being said, regardless of an expiring CBA after 2026, it felt like the runway was going to extend into 2026 because the nature of playing growing in the majors usually takes more than one season to do so.
MS Bird Brain: Thanks for the chat Daniel. The recent news about Roby was terrible, but it reminds that you would be a great source on is the status of the young pitching the Cardinals have RETURNING soon from surgery. Some examples: Andrew Dutkanych IV, Jack Findley, Payton Graham, Cooper Hjerpe, Sem Robberse, and Drew Rom. There are probably others, for example I know almost nothing since the draft about Brian Holiday?
Guerrero: Dutkanych made his pro debut in July and has most recently pitched for Class Low-A Palm Beach. Findlay had been healthy all year but recently went on the IL. The Cardinals did not provide an injury designation for Findlay. Graham will be out this year because of Tommy John and could be limited next spring as he works his way back from injury. Robberse and Hjerpe both had Tommy John earlier this season and will likely be sidelined for the start of next season. Rom is still on the IL, but a timeline has not been provided.
Bryan C: Why don't the Baseball Team owners and the Baseball Players Union try to get a deal done before next season? You know, start working on it today? Do not wait until after next season to try to get this done. That sounds reasonable to me how about you? That way the fans are not worried a work stoppage.
Guerrero: I don't think it's as much about when they start working on it, but more about what they are working on and finding agreements on those issues.
Bryan C: Please tell us about how the Cardinal attendance is compared to last year.
Guerrero: I don't have gate attendance numbers, which is more representative of how the games feels, but paid attendance numbers per game are down compared to previous years. The Cardinals are averaging 28,881 tickets sold per home game, per Baseball Reference. That's down from the 35,532 they averaged in 2024 and from the 40,000+ they averaged in 2022 and 2023.
Jim: Is there any update on Hence's latest injury. Feels like its time to call it for him as a starter and hope he won't get hurt being a reliever too
Guerrero: We haven't heard much on Hence of late.
Chris: Do you think Chaim Bloom will have the appetite to give up some promising prospects and/or current 26 man players to get one of the impact starters listed as available this deadline but didn't move: Keller, Ryan, Alcantara, etc? This team is in desperate need of quality staring pitchers.
Guerrero: It's hard to gauge how Bloom will operate the trade market because 1. he's yet to take over and we've to hear from him on that, and 2. I think this last stretch of games from August to September will also be a factor in what the outlook will be heading into the winter. But in a broader sense, it's hard to see dealing top prospects from a farm system that has gone through an overhaul and an organization making playing time for young guys a priority.
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