Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker (18) celebrates his a two-run home run off Phillies pitcher Carlos Hernandez with outfielder Mike Siani in the eighth inning of a game Sunday, April 13, 2025, at Busch Stadium.
Anyone who has spent any recent time in Row 25鈥檚 middle seat of a jetliner idling on the tarmac, trying to get a clear view of the window, has a feeling for the spot the Cardinals find themselves in at the All-Star break of their rebrand summer.
Every runway is only so long.
Eventually, you do have to take off.
Or taxi around 鈥榯il turning back to refuel.
Since the 2024 season ended with a pivot toward development and upcoming years, the Cardinals have launched a variety of buzzwords: 鈥渞eset鈥 (abandoned), 鈥渢ransition鈥 (adopted) and 鈥渞unway鈥 (widely accepted). The intended purpose of the season was to give homegrown players plenty of playing time, or 鈥渞unway,鈥 to determine where they fit in the Cardinals鈥 next era. Instead of the historically accurate metrics of wins, pennant and World Series appearances, one club official said this season would be a 鈥渇ailure鈥 if they came out of it without a complete evaluation of their young players.
A funny thing happened on the way to the future.
The Cardinals started to contend.
鈥淲e鈥檝e given ourselves a shot while still doing (the developing), right?鈥 manager Oliver Marmol said. 鈥淚 think we鈥檝e threaded that as much as we can. I don鈥檛 think we鈥檒l veer from it. The further we get into the season, it鈥檚 not just runway for the sake of runway.鈥
The Cardinals open the back stretch of the regular season with right-hander Andre Pallante starting Friday night in Arizona and No. 1 starter Sonny Gray set to go Saturday. At 51-46, the Cardinals spent the break at third place in the National League Central, 6 1/2 games out of the division lead but only 1 1/2 games out of an NL wild-card berth. They have a favorable schedule in the coming weeks that begins with their first games of the year west of Kansas City and nine of the next 13 against losing teams.
That 13 also coincides with how many games the Cardinals have before the July 31 trade deadline 鈥 and John Mozeliak, in his final trade deadline as president of baseball operations, is watching them for a direction. These 13 games could be the deadline weathervane, pointing the Cardinals toward buyer, seller or vacillating to a familiar house blend of both.
Will it be a gust of wins?
Or a drop in pressure?
鈥淚t could be so different with four or five guys who are out of here in a couple of weeks,鈥 said closer Ryan Helsley, who could be one of those four or five guys due to his expiring contract. Fellow relievers Phil Maton and Steven Matz will also generate interest. Helsley has expressed a preference to stay and remain long term with the Cardinals.
鈥淭hat depends on how we play and what the rest of the division is doing,鈥 Helsley continued. 鈥淚 feel like that鈥檚 the case every year. But this year what鈥檚 different 鈥 teams thought we were going to be a lot worse than we are. Teams show up here and it鈥檚 a dogfight against us from pitch No. 1.鈥
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a group that is not afraid of anything,鈥 said Brendan Donovan, the Cardinals鈥 lone All-Star, late Tuesday night after going 2 for 3 in the NL鈥檚 victory in Atlanta. 鈥淚t鈥檚 people learning how to go about their business in the big leagues, kind of learning who they are. And I think that鈥檚 what makes us scary. ... Our expectations were completely different than the ones set on us.鈥
From above at cruising altitude, the Cardinals are decidedly slightly above average.
Their offense produces runs 3% better than league average with a .252 batting average that ranks 11th and a .393 slugging percentage that ranks 18th out of 30. Their pitching staff ERA ranks 20th in the majors at 4.13. It鈥檚 buoyed by the bullpen鈥檚 3.81 ERA, which ranks 13th, and burdened a tad by a below-average rotation with a 4.34 ERA
The Cardinals are greater than the sum of their parts considering some of those parts are producing below their career expectations.
They rely on tight defense, solid late-inning relief, clever bullpen use, starter health and some fortunate timing. They rank fourth in the majors in comeback wins (24) and have the fourth-fewest blown-lead losses (18).
鈥淵ou never see them beat themselves,鈥 said Reds All-Star lefty Andrew Abbott.
The Cardinals advertised to the division that they weren鈥檛 going to make any significant offseason additions, and they did not.
鈥淎nd it鈥檚 working,鈥 Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong said.
Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn celebrates after hitting an RBI double, driving in Lars Nootbaar, during a game against the Pirates on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at Busch Stadium.
Although, the Cardinals are defying trends in the game to still succeed. They are one of two winning teams who rank in the bottom 10 for strikeout rate. (They are 29th at 7.37 per nine innings, ahead of only lowly Colorado.) For comparison, eight of the top nine teams in strikeout rate have winning records. The Cardinals are one of four winning teams with fewer than 100 home runs so far this season, and they have the lowest isolated power (slugging minus batting average) of any winning team, at .129.
They are the only winning team in the bottom third for strikeout rate and home runs hit.
The Cardinals play the probabilities. They are a team that relies on balls put in play against them finding fielders and balls put in play by them finding gaps. Toss in the volatility of youth and prolonged offensive slumps that come with adjusting and adapting at the majors and that explains their nine-game winning streak and the recent rash of shutouts.
Marmol was recently asked by the Post-Dispatch if he sees those roller-coaster results smoothing out as a sign of improvement from the young players.
鈥淚鈥檇 love to say yes, but the answer is not entirely,鈥 Marmol said. 鈥淚 think when you look at a veteran player, what they鈥檝e learned to do is shorten the amount of time that they stink. They鈥檙e able to take a three-week period and turn it into 10 days. It鈥檚 shorter. And then you put a lot of veterans together and they do that in the win-loss column, too. It鈥檚 just how they play the game. It鈥檚 just shorter downturns or ruts in a season. When you鈥檙e young and you鈥檙e a player, those are longer. ... You put a lot of (developing players) together you鈥檙e actually going to have these longer ups and downs. That鈥檚 just part of it.
鈥淎s a staff, we have to constantly remind ourselves of that,鈥 he continued. 鈥淏ecause you can鈥檛 get frustrated. That is part of this process.鈥
Marmol was asked what role wins play in that 鈥減rocess.鈥
鈥淲e can鈥檛 be fooled, just because we won we鈥檙e good or because we lost we weren鈥檛,鈥 he explained. 鈥淪ometimes we only think about the second one: We lost, but we weren鈥檛 good. Sometimes you win a game and you played like (crud). You missed a lot of opportunities and you just got lucky and you better learn from those as much as some of the losses.鈥
That is the point where the Cardinals鈥 season they planned and the opportunity they have in the standings connect: How important is winning to developing?
As the trade deadline nears, here are three Cardinals who personify the answer to that question, two of whom could see their place in the present and future of the club shaped in the coming weeks:
1. Jordan Walker, OF
Limited to 55 games by injury stints to go with his .210 average and .562 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), Walker鈥檚 time on a rehab assignment is running out with a decision imminent, coming possibly as soon as Friday. The Cardinals optioned Thomas Saggese on Thursday to clear room.
Walker went on the injured list this past month due to appendicitis.
The Cardinals assigned him to Class AA Springfield (Missouri) for his rehab so that he could work with coaches there on a swing adjustment. When he鈥檚 set to return to the majors, his playing time is uncertain, especially as Alec Burleson has hit his way into a starting job.
Walker was a prominent part of the Cardinals鈥 鈥渞unway鈥 plan 鈥 to see if he would be the talent to take off. Now, at the deadline, teams expect to ask if he鈥檚 in play for trade talks or if the Cardinals will deal from overlaps at other positions.
2. Michael McGreevy, RHP
Cardinals officials agree that McGreevy is ready for the majors, and they鈥檝e used his roster status to move the right-hander between Class AAA Memphis and the majors as a de facto sixth starter. The most obvious way to clear a spot in the rotation for McGreevy is to trade one of the current members, such as a pending free agent Erick Fedde.
Fedde has struggled in the past month, diminishing the return the Cardinals could get. But a move would give McGreevy the ever-popular 鈥渞unway鈥 to provide results now as he preps to be in next season鈥檚 rotation.
3. Mozeliak
In the closing months of his 18th season atop baseball operations, Mozeliak will be in a familiar place at the trade deadline: the spotlight. But he knows it will be for the last time with this team. He can attempt to play it like golf 鈥 down the middle 鈥 or choose a side. What he and the Cardinals elect to do will shape how the club is viewed at the end of his tenure and how it will start Chaim Bloom鈥檚 turn.
Mozeliak described the deadline decisions as 鈥渃ollaborative鈥 with the incoming front office. And he recently wished for 鈥渢ough decisions鈥 at the deadline because it would mean balancing a winning team now and the goal of setting up the team for contending years yet to come. He cautioned against 鈥渂lowing up a club鈥 because it can take 鈥測ears to recover.鈥
鈥淚s there something the franchise can benefit from should we do (it)?鈥 he said.
One answer that comes up around the organization: the benefit of winning.
After an offseason downplaying expectations for the club and trying to trade some veterans who refused to waive their no-trade clauses and preferred to stay, the Cardinals are one win better than last season at the same point. A decision to sell at the deadline could lead to a precipitous drop in the standings and dramatic change in the clubhouse 鈥 younger, yes, but without the airflow of winning to elevate the climate.
They risk the runway becoming a ground stop.
鈥淭hat is why our staff is completely locked in making sure we keep (winning) that way because it鈥檚 better for the players,鈥 Marmol said. 鈥淚t is. It鈥檚 ideal. It鈥檚 what you鈥檙e hoping for. It鈥檚 better for the player to play meaningful baseball whether there is pressure from an evaluation standpoint or from an experience standpoint. When you can get them together, that is high-level development.鈥
