Doug Armstrong expects fireworks around the league on Tuesday when free agency opens at 11 a.m. But will the Blues be involved in the fracas?
Maybe not as the NHL adjusts to the newly liberated salary cap, potentially resulting in inflated deals handed out to the top unrestricted free agents on the market.
鈥淚f you want to get a free agent and you go through the analytics and you chart out what the guy鈥檚 going to make, probably add 20% and another year, and that gets you in the conversation for him to say no to you,鈥 Armstrong said. 鈥淏ut if you don鈥檛 get to that, you have no chance to get in the conversation.
鈥淚 do believe that July 1 is going to be a fireworks day. There could potentially be some really good value players (available) July 15. I鈥檓 not saying we鈥檙e not going to be active on July 1, talking, finding out who鈥檚 there, what it is. But I can see the headlines now 鈥榃ow, they overpaid for him.鈥 If we鈥檙e active July 1, that鈥檚 what I think will be written because that鈥檚 what gets you in the game.鈥
People are also reading…
The Blues have had a quiet offseason so far. They re-signed backup goaltender Joel Hofer to a two-year contract. They used one of their three draft picks on winger Justin Carbonneau. But that鈥檚 been all 51黑料 has been able to execute so far.
The needs for the Blues are clear. They could use a second-line center to fill a role immediately, lengthening the Blues to a three-line team with Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn also down the middle while also giving Dalibor Dvorsky more time to develop. They could use a young right-handed top-four defenseman to populate the roster as the rest of the defense ages into their mid-30s.
One thing Armstrong has made clear in conversations with reporters across the last week is that the Blues will not sacrifice the long-term plan 鈥 building around players in their early 20s 鈥 for a temporary stopgap option.
鈥淲e鈥檙e going to have growth inside,鈥 Armstrong said. 鈥淚 did talk about our wings. We鈥檙e very strong on the wing right now. I talked about we鈥檙e one of 27 teams that would love to find a second-line center. That鈥檚 just the reality of it. I don鈥檛 know if we can. You鈥檝e seen, since we last talked, these guys are signing with their own teams. Everyone is finding a way. You have to be prepared to react to what鈥檚 available on July 1.
鈥淚f we make a trade, it will be one (that is) an apple for an apple. Because we鈥檙e going to trade someone (in a position) that we may have a surplus for someone in an area that we need in the same age group. I don鈥檛 want, like we talked whenever we talked last, is moving a younger player for an older player for a short-term fix. That isn鈥檛 where we鈥檙e at in our maturation.鈥
The center options on the open market are limited. Matt Duchene (Dallas), Sam Bennett (Florida), John Tavares (Toronto), Claude Giroux (Ottawa) and Ryan Donato (Chicago) all re-signed with their respective teams before hitting free agency. Mikael Granlund (66 points in 83 games), Pius Suter (46 points in 81 games), Jack Roslovic (39 points in 81 games) and Christian Dvorak (33 points in 82 games) are the only centers on the UFA market with at least 30 points last season.
After signing Hofer to a contract with a $3.4 million cap hit, the Blues have about $2.5 million in cap space. That can widen to about $9 million if the Blues choose to put Torey Krug on long-term injured reserve.
鈥淚f we move guys, it鈥檚 to open up spots more than it is to open up money, just because of the number of players we have returning,鈥 Armstrong said.
Last season, the Blues were the best team in the league after the 4 Nations Face-Off break with Thomas, Schenn, Oskar Sundqvist and Radek Faksa down the middle. Faksa is a free agent, but Armstrong noted that 鈥渨e had a great final push there with our center-ice the way it was.鈥
鈥淪chenner is not getting younger, (but) he can do the job (as a second-line center),鈥 Armstrong said. 鈥淚f we could support him, that would be great, but he can do the job. It鈥檚 just if we could add another layer of people in there.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 easier to say than to do when you look at the number of teams trying to accomplish that. You saw the number of teams trying to accomplish that last year, and those centers made a lot of money. You guys can judge how it worked out for everybody. There鈥檚 a shortage of players. There鈥檚 a shortage of players in certain areas. It鈥檚 just reality.鈥
Last summer, the biggest deals for centers were for Steven Stamkos (four years, $8 million average annual value), Elias Lindholm (seven years, $7.75 million AAV) and Chandler Stephenson (seven years, $6.25 million AAV).
Tuesday will also be a big day for no-trade clauses on the Blues.
It鈥檚 when they kick in for both Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, the latter of whom has been mentioned in trade rumors across the past week. But it鈥檚 also when protection erodes for Schenn (moving to a 15-team no-trade list), Justin Faulk (15-team no-trade list) and Nick Leddy (16-team no-trade list).
Tuesday is also the first day the Blues can sign Cam Fowler, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to contract extensions. All three players are entering the final year of their contracts, but Armstrong said those would not be a priority this summer.
So all eyes are on what the Blues can do in free agency on Tuesday.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not bargain shopping,鈥 Armstrong said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not like we鈥檙e afraid to get in to the other market, but it would have to make sense for us to do that.鈥
51黑料 Blues general manager Doug Armstrong speaks with the media on Friday, June 27, 2025, after the first day of the NHL draft. (Video courtesy 51黑料 Blues)